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| Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure | ||
| 12/5/2025 3:40 PM | ||
| Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overused explanation for past movement, let alone for the prediction of future movement. In this week"s case, however, the consolidation pattern in bond yields offers one of the only ways to understand the ...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Could See More Volatility Next Week | ||
| 12/5/2025 3:06 PM | ||
| Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week"s movement was especially abrupt. That"s interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week. It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the he...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Apps Ebb Despite Strongest Purchase Demand in Years | ||
| 12/5/2025 12:43 PM | ||
| Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity edged 1.4% lower last week according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28. Unadjusted applications were down sharply (33%) due to the holiday. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 109% higher than the same week one year ago—still ...Read More | ||
| Earned Equity, HELOC, CRM, AI Agent, DSCR Hedging Products; Conventional Conforming Changes | ||
| 12/5/2025 10:45 AM | ||
| Recently I paid over $10 for a simple Oscar Mayer 12-ounce package of bacon. Jerome Powell, help me! Well, the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set bacon prices, or things that come from China like rare earth metals, most of which I’ve never heard of but are apparently in my phone and car’s dashboard. Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions in Ch...Read More | ||
| Inconsequential Data and Modest Movement | ||
| 12/5/2025 9:33 AM | ||
| If there"s one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it"s that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the available economic data. While this was a notable disconnect on Wednesday (little reaction to ADP/ISM), it"s fairly easy to reconcile on a day like today where the PCE data is super stale (delayed rel...Read More | ||
| Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data | ||
| 12/4/2025 3:21 PM | ||
| Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data On multiple recent occasions, we"ve seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week | ||
| 12/4/2025 2:46 PM | ||
| Today"s mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday"s and although yesterday"s rates were reasonably close to last Friday"s, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there"s a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate surv...Read More | ||
| Home Value, Due Diligence, AVM, Refi Products; Extensive HELOC, DSCR, Non-QM Product Changes | ||
| 12/4/2025 10:39 AM | ||
| “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the builders themselves, can sometimes be viewed as adversaries. In dealing with buyers of new homes, builders and their lender arm often adjust seller credits, par rates, and buy down programs. Builders, of ...Read More | ||
| Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022 | ||
| 12/4/2025 7:53 AM | ||
| Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won"t be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they"ve been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn"t worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big ...Read More | ||
| Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally | ||
| 12/3/2025 3:33 PM | ||
| Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we"re heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we...Read More | ||